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Last updated: 2021-06-02
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Knit directory: uci_covid_modeling2/
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| File | Version | Author | Date | Message |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| html | 2a1089e | Damon Bayer | 2021-05-24 | 2021-05-24 Update |
| html | 3557813 | Damon Bayer | 2021-05-17 | 2021-05-17 Update |
| html | 44473d0 | Damon Bayer | 2021-05-10 | 2021-05-10 Update |
| html | 9e38bb8 | Damon Bayer | 2021-05-04 | 2021-05-03 Update |
| html | 8994d5e | Damon Bayer | 2021-04-27 | 2021-04-26 Update |
| html | bdae734 | Damon Bayer | 2021-04-19 | 2021-04-19 Update |
| html | 391f6a1 | Damon Bayer | 2021-04-12 | 2021-04-12 Update |
| html | ed4a33e | Damon Bayer | 2021-04-05 | 2021-04-05 Update |
| html | b33b72f | Damon Bayer | 2021-03-29 | 2021-03-29 Update |
| html | cd13e00 | Damon Bayer | 2021-03-16 | 2021-03-15 Update |
| html | 4d1bc4d | Damon Bayer | 2021-03-01 | 2021-03-01 Update |
| html | 0eccc36 | Damon Bayer | 2021-02-22 | 2021-02-15 Backfill |
| html | 31485c4 | Damon Bayer | 2021-02-22 | 2021-02-22 Update |
| html | 20a5e54 | Damon Bayer | 2021-02-16 | Revert “2021-02-16 Update” |
| html | 0f96253 | Damon Bayer | 2021-02-16 | 2021-02-16 Update |
| html | 5c63d55 | Damon Bayer | 2021-02-09 | 2021-02-08 Update |
| html | 436e286 | Damon Bayer | 2021-02-01 | 2021-02-01 Update |
| html | 8bc06d3 | Damon Bayer | 2021-01-27 | Backfill 2020-01-18 Update |
| html | 8da4f62 | Damon Bayer | 2021-01-27 | Fix historical cumulative deaths |
| html | 28db989 | Damon Bayer | 2021-01-26 | 2020-01-25 Update |
| html | 11f4456 | Damon Bayer | 2021-01-20 | Revert “2020-01-18 Update” |
| html | 847f3bd | Damon Bayer | 2021-01-19 | 2020-01-18 Update |
| html | 518b7bf | Damon Bayer | 2021-01-12 | Small plot tweaks |
| html | b3e230f | Damon Bayer | 2021-01-12 | Show Probability of Death Reporting in Model Inputs Plots |
| html | 63bcbfd | Damon Bayer | 2021-01-11 | 2021-01-11 Update, Close #2, Account for Death Reporting Delays |
| html | 68805a0 | Damon Bayer | 2021-01-06 | Fix Icons |
| html | f70916b | Damon Bayer | 2021-01-06 | 2021-01-14 City & County Updates |
| Rmd | d4cbb1a | Damon Bayer | 2020-12-29 | about page update (Close #5) |
| html | d4cbb1a | Damon Bayer | 2020-12-29 | about page update (Close #5) |
| html | 5c9b537 | Damon Bayer | 2020-12-29 | City Reports |
| Rmd | dcffe20 | Damon Bayer | 2020-12-16 | Initial Commit |
| html | dcffe20 | Damon Bayer | 2020-12-16 | Initial Commit |
| Rmd | 6e35bec | Damon Bayer | 2020-12-09 | Start workflowr project. |
About
This website provides reports on the dynamics and future trends of spread of SARS-CoV-2 in Orange County, CA. Please visit the github for details on the code, and read the manuscript associated with this endeavor for further methodological details.
Contact
Methodology
Data
We use data provided by OCHCA. An aggregated version of our data is available in the github. Crucially, we exclude repeat tests given to patients who test positive (which happens when patients are hospitalized). Our data may not correspond with publicly available data.
We also do not analyze data in real time. This is because case, test, and death counts are often updated retroactively, and we wish to give data collectors time to provide complete results. Typically, there will be at least a ten day gap between the present day and the final date analyzed in the most recent report.
Statistical methodology
Our analysis relies on a six compartment mechanistic model of the pandemic. We then use Bayesian inference to provide inference on key disease dynamics and make predictions on future observed cases and deaths. Further descriptions of the methodology are available in the manuscript.